Hello. Returning after a hiatus. Missed by no one. Or so I thought. Yes I was here but a small stint later, I did not want to be one more voice in the sea of opinions and words that wash on to the world wide web everyday. Lost I felt. I had no visitors. No one was drawn towards my blog. I was sad that I had nothing interesting to say which is why no one was listening to me, following me (The twitter mania), visiting my page (The Dashboard). Did no one find what I had to say worthy? Why bother then!

Throughout our lives we gear ourselves towards getting noticed. Whether we take after the little-miss-perfect or the serial killer is up to us (or not since the study that suggested that we are who we are by genetic makeup). Coming back to the point – all we do in life is acted out. Like the Shakespearean stage. Like the walk to the loo in a crowded restaurant. The essence of our actions is aimed at an audience. that is not enough, we are also constantly in search of acknowledgement – secretly we want an applause for everything we do.

And then someone reminded me that this need not be the case always. As he showed off his digital ramble from once upon a time he smiled with a warm glow. Yes, I was impressed. Very. But his flush had nothing to do with me.

He smiled at his own ingenuity. He was happy that he had conjured up something so insanely interesting in a likewise moment. He was glad that he had made it immortal, accessible. It was a pleasant reminder and boy was he pleased. In that moment, I realized that my rantings were being missed by the one most important reader – me. In a way he doesn’t know, he left me inspired. This one is for him. For myself, others will follow more regularly!

Saturday, 09 Feb, 2008 | 04:36 AM PST |

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/in-paper-magazine/young-world/the+worlds+largest+kurta

While some of you may have caught a glimpse of the Ariel World’s Largest Kurta while driving down the Karsaz flyover near National Stadium, seeing it up close and personal is a different feeling altogether. Standing in its enormity amongst a dazzling display of lights, it is 101 feet tall — almost as high as an eight-storey building! Made to scale, the sparkling white Kurta is designed to be 30 times larger than an average medium-sized Kurta. For a person to be able to wear the Kurta, he or she would have to be 175 feet tall!

This Kurta has been certified as the World’s Largest Kurta by Guinness World Records and the Kurta team used this occasion as a call for celebration. The end result was a spectacular display of fireworks in the backdrop of the Kurta hoisted to its full glory that left everyone present there completely spellbound and overjoyed.

As I stood in front of this mammoth creation and marvelled at its splendour, heightened by the fiery burst of colours in the evening sky, I was filled with a sense of delight and great pride. Made in Pakistan, this enormous and spectacular Kurta, which is also very heavy and made from 800 yards of fabric, is the first of its kind entry in the Guinness World Records. Yet another feather in Pakistan’s cap to prove there is so much more to this country.

Some interesting facts about the World’s Largest Kurta

• The World’s Largest Kurta was certified by Guinness based on the measurement taken in January 2008

• The Kurta is 101 feet tall and 59 feet three inches wide. Each sleeve is almost 57 feet long

• It took a team of 50 hardworking professional tailors a period of 30 days to make the Kurta

• The Kurta, is made of 800 yards of cotton blend fabric

• Our very own famous designer Deepak Perwani has added subtle yet stylish adornments to the Kurta to add to make it trendy while still being traditional

• This is the first time that Guinness World Record has recognised a record for a kurta and hence, the World’s Largest Kurta is a first of its kind entry

• The Kurta will be used to create smaller kurtas that will be donated to children sheltered by Edhi Foundation across Pakistan.

Another SouthAsia cover story piece I edited / co-authored.

From the time, over five decades ago when Pakistan saw its first dictator, things have not changed much. Over the course of years, the key players have taken different forms and faces but have somehow unraveled the art of retaining the true essence of their being – corrupt, crafty and selfishly power hungry. Time and time again, the army has stepped in to “rid” the country of the vermin that pollutes the political arena but to no avail. No longer the potential solution, the General has become a big part of Pakistan’s problem.
As military dictators go, Pakistan’s General Pervez Musharraf had always seemed rather a decent sort. An affable man who apparently spoke his soldierly mind, Musharraf prompted quiet cheers from many of his countrymen when he usurped power from a corrupt civilian government in 1999. Risking popular anger by swiftly enlisting his country in the war against al-Qaeda and the Taliban, Musharraf ingeniously won the backing of America and its allies – a feat many thought would be impossible in the backdrop of the September 11th events. So far, he has been seen to be working in the country’s best interest. Yet, of late, the “Go Musharraf Go” chant seems to echo from various corners of the country, getting louder every day. It has not only inspired political caricatures but is also a well circulated cellular ring tone! One wonders, between then and now, what went wrong?
Some analysts are of the view that the state of emergency imposed on November 3rd, when he dismantled the constitutional facade built to prettify his rule and imposed, in effect, martial law has played a vital role in shaping public opinion against Musharraf. However, others contend that his support had evaporated even before he staged this second coup. Over the years Musharraf squandered the goodwill he enjoyed at home and abroad. Many at home were angered by his alliance with America in a war they saw as directed at both Islam and their ethnic-Pushtun kin in Afghanistan. They are of the view that his persistent refusal to take off his army uniform and allow unrigged elections is what alienated liberal opinion. The anti-Musharraf sentiments, initially in isolated circles, has gained momentum over time fuelled to a propelling force in light of recent events.
Logical yes but anyone who has either been a part of, or really truly studied politics, specifically Pakistani politics, would know that the answer is never in rational “explanations.” If logic were the way to go, Zia’s diarchic model of governance, maybe wrong in theory but necessary in practice, should have worked. If reason were the grounds of political events, Benazir should not only have been ousted long before her time but also tried for her crimes of corruption. In reality, she was “outed” as a failure not because of her lack of governance skills but for her fool-headed, needless quarrel with the obstreperous Chief Justice, Sajjad Ali Shah. If common sense is the riding wave of political turn of events, Farooq Leghari, the man she had herself chosen as president, should not have been the man who literally gave her the boot. In all honesty, if politics were consistent, the essential premise wherein logic, reasoning and common sense apply, able leaders would have a fair advantage. That politics would make sense is as outlandish a notion as the potential of Imran Khan coming to power.
Like opinion, political events are manufactured and staged with great pomp and fine acting skills. Luckily for the political maestros, in the case of Pakistan, the overall extremely low public IQ enables them to repeat the same act again and again. The ruse is fairly simple too – like the case of the greedy undertaker who buried by day and stole the cloth the corpse is buried by night. With time, he became notorious for his own liking. Cursed and disliked, upon his death bed, the only desire he communicated to his son was that he somehow be remembered in kind words. When the son took over, he continued in the practice of his father but also sold the body parts of corpses for small amounts of money. His brutality erased the “harmless” crimes of his father, who thus became the better man in comparison.

Like this parable, politics is also relative. A series of events are structured to create a feeling of extreme chaos such that the army, ever so ready, must step in to create order and “fix” the mess made by the politicians. Act two is but a temporary phase where the army, by now subtly aware of being duped yet to proud to call the bluff, makes cosmetic changes to give an air of being in charge. Struggling to leave a mark, the army sometimes gets caught up in the act and inevitably becomes the villain. With a bad track record of being in governance and sincere lack of political tact and insight, the army is an easy target for the masterminds. With their misdeeds “exposed,” the army is decried by the public at large and forced to pave way for the very leaders, now their fraudulent schemes and corruption commissions obscured by the “bigger” threat. These leaders conveniently offer themselves to “save the day” and then live happily ever after, or so till the next political upheaval comes along.
However, Pakistan’s long history of military dictatorship does not counter the fact that the nation is deeply committed to democracy. On the other hand, this sincerity should not be mistaken for what is currently being touted as the victory of democracy. Jumping to the conclusion that the current regime is the harbinger of ideological liberation is like a dog leaping towards a ball – excitedly, thoughtlessly. The true spirit of democracy embodies strategic planning based on political “dialogue.” To quote the most recent example, true representatives of the people would have deliberated and developed a tactical approach keeping in mind how civilian life would be affected before handing over NWFP to the military forces. Instead, General Kiyani was urged by the Honorable Prime Minister Gilani to rush and take control. Tragically, like Pakistan’s history, the so-called democracy is staged.
Yet, all may not be lost. If the military becomes watchful and does not play in the hands of the nondemocratic forces in the political arena, the cycle of history can be stopped. At this point in time the situation seems past the juncture of correction, with the “people’s choice” leaders already in place. However, this can be rectified should President Pervez Musharraf act wisely instead of divorcing himself from the political circle altogether. The impact of the rumors of his resignation on the country’s economy is testimony that the country still believes in him. Musharraf must capitalize on this support and take the public into confidence to face the enigma at hand, upfront.
While he may no longer be serving, Musharraf’s long standing association with the army makes his every move reflect on his former profession. Instead of paying heed to the idle talk that seems to be haunting the political grapevine, Musharraf must stand and expose the pretenders. What has changed between then and now that has shuddered them out of nine years of slumber? If indeed the concern of these “champions of democracy” is genuine, where were they on October 12th or when 9/11 fallout on Pakistan was averted, when Bugti was assassinated? Like a true soldier, it is Musharraf’s right, and duty, to fight it out.
The confrontation, albeit extremely risky, is required. Pakistan’s economy is volatile and various elements are at work to keep it that way because instability is the most compelling argument to curb “reaction.” The perfect timing of the judicial crisis, and lately the matter of Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification, may just be the quirks of the political entrapment to ensure that it is “not the right time” for anything else. Yet, as a General and President, who has indeed made a positive contribution to the country, it is incumbent upon him, for once, to set the record straight. The politicized disqualification of Musharraf, should not be allowed to become the qualification of those with no right to be in power politically, morally or otherwise.

An editorial for SouthAsia published in Apr 2008.

The recent turn of events in Pakistan’s political scenario allows for optimism as spring takes hold of both the season and the spirit. There are many reasons why this was a different era for the political map of Pakistan and hence, many reasons to rejoice.

For the first time ever, under a dictatorship or otherwise, Pakistan’s parliament completed its five year tenure. For a change, promises were fulfilled. Barring the circumstantial complications, elections were not delayed for eight years contrary to prior trends. Peacefully held, the outcome of the polls was widely accepted without any claim of rigging by both who came out victorious and those who did not. Unlike previous military rules, the prisons were not flooded, ideals were not imposed and the media was allowed to boom and prosper as an industry such that we have countless electronic and radio channels servicing the masses in English, Urdu and even regional languages.

Just as wrong doing begets outrageous backlash, positive measures deserve to be appreciated. President Pervez Musharraf is worthy of some praise at least for the go-ahead he has given to democracy amongst other things. Inviting political leaders for dialogue instead of jail sentences is no mean feat. As a consequence, today, the new national assembly, elected under a free and fair process, has made its way in to house without bloodshed. While only striving to make a difference, Musharraf has made much more – an ever lasting impression. In his stride, he has also raised the bar for the incoming leaders.

The last government has gracefully handed over the reins to the new government signaling that democracy still has a chance in Pakistan. Now the onus of carrying this change forward lies in the hands of the new government. The victorious party has bigger shoes to fill as they hold the two-fold challenge to bear the torch of liberation while also ensuring that their glorious leader’s ideological vision is implemented in her absence. A towering leader has lost her life in the struggle for democracy and if only for her sake, let us all make an honest attempt to change for the better. If politicians can change, what is stopping us? The timing could not be better to turn over a new leaf – after spring too is in the air.

This was a quick fix article for SouthAsia magazine July or Aug 2008 issue. no byline

Maldives has made impressive development gains over the last three decades and has moved from being one of the 20 poorest countries in the world in 1978 to become a middle-income country which has the highest per capita income in South Asia. Maldives, a country that is poised between extinction and achieving middle-income status with a per capita GDP of US$2,800, suffered damage worth 62% of GDP during the Indian Ocean tsunami of December 2004
The Maldivian economy has expanded at an average of 7% per year for the last 25 years. Maldives has already met all but two of the Millennium Development Goals and has drastically reduced poverty. . However, while Maldives has lower poverty inequality remains high relative to South Asia. Past development has been founded on sound fiscal policies, political stability, and highly successful tourist industry, based on the country’s extraordinary natural assets.

Maldives faces some significant short-term challenges and the Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) outlined by the World Bank aims to achieve just that. The CAS is designed to support the government’s Seventh National Development Plan (7NDP) which aims to improve the standard of living for all Maldivians and which serves as the country’s Poverty Reduction Strategy.

The new World Bank Group Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) for the Republic of Maldives envisages lending around US$45 million in highly concessional funds from the International Development Association (IDA) over the next five years to support the country’s development program. The strategy was prepared jointly by the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation (IFC).

The Country Assistance Strategy identifies three challenges in particular: political instability, fiscal uncertainties, and potential issues associated with project implementation. While flexibility is built into the CAS for the Bank to adjust its program accordingly, for new investment projects, project design will be adapted to ensure sustainability even if short-term fiscal problems emerge. Finally, to address potential project implementation risks, projects will be kept simple with tightly focused outputs and outcomes and will include institutional development components where these are needed.

The strategy aims to deploy both lending and advisory services, as well as private sector investments, in selective interventions. These interventions seek to contribute to development outcomes including: (i) a well-managed economy attracting increased investment; (ii) improved quality of education to provide a better skilled workforce; and (iii) enhanced capacity to manage the country’s natural environment.

Across these three pillars—economic and fiscal governance, human development and social protection, and environmental management—special attention will be given to developing institutions so as to strengthen fiduciary management and to supporting the government’s plan for population consolidation. Adapting to the possible effects of global climate change, creating opportunities for diversified economic activities, and lowering the cost of public services across the many disparate islands and atolls underlie Maldives’ voluntary population consolidation policy.

The Bank’s interventions to be funded by IDA will focus on results established by previous operations, for example, in the areas of human development and environmental management, as well as some new areas that include environmental management, mobile phone banking, and a new pensions system. Since 2000, IFC has committed $47.8 million in Maldives, consisting of four projects in the finance, tourism, logistics, and telecommunications sectors. Further investment and advisory work during the upcoming CAS will be focused in the areas of infrastructure, access to finance, and tourism.

The past four years have seen increasing political unrest and growing tensions between government and opposition. However, the track record of the Maldives in containing major unrest is encouraging. Its people are pragmatic, most seem to understand the importance of stability if economic growth is to be maintained, and a steady improvement in the quality of life for the majority provides an incentive for evolutionary rather than revolutionary change.

Penned this for an issue of South Asia in 2008 (don’t remember month and oh, i was not credited either!)

Benazir Bhutto’s assassination last month is the most tragic event in the recent history of Pakistan. Seeing the angry mob torching vehicles while rowdy opportunists looted the stranded, one was reminded of the mid 90s. Post-riot analysis of damage suffered confirms that that is where we essentially stand economically.

On the other hand Asif Zardari, contrary to the flood of public sentiments, has demonstrated great political maturity by openly condemning anti-Pakistan slogans that surfaced shortly after Benazir’s burial in Ghari Khuda Buksh.

Politically, the chain of events that has ensued has perhaps had the most adverse effects on President Pervez Musharraf. Benazir was the only genuine and meaningful voice of the liberal/moderate thinking in Pakistan that Musharraf staunchly adovocates. In fact, he has expressed openly on numerous occasions that his agenda is the same as that of Benazir. With her death, he has not only lost his ONLY potential ally but the progress he had made on improving Pakistan’s image on the international front has been made redundant.

Due to the immense strategic value of Pakistan in the region it is important for key ‘players’ in Pakistan to take things seriously. With word on the street being that “in the best interest of everyone” (read US), the world (read US again), would like to BE in Pakistan on the pretext of “nuclear power going in the hands of extremist elements.”

Had Pakistan been situated elsewhere in the Caribbean, Middle East or Africa, things would have been different. However, being a front line state in the war on terror has its disadvantages. As a politically unstable and small, nuclear-capable country and above all dubbed as a failed state due to extremist forces (courtesy General Zia’s role in fighting against the Soviets on behalf of the US), makes matters worse for Pakistan.

President Musharraf lost the opportunity history delivered to him post-9/11 which provided him support from the best. A perfect President for the first 3 years of his direct rule, he fell victim to the ideal of “Democracy” as sold to him by the Chaudhris. What Pakistan sees today is the outcome of this very mistake.

At this point it is imperative that Pervez Musharraf get involved and negotiate directly with the leaders of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). A surety that effective measures are being taken to ensure free and fair elections could calm the situation at home. Once that is done and power is handed over to the true representative of the people, the biggest critique leveled against Pakistan internationally would be ruled out. Consequently, it would be tough for the US to justify the use of force against a democracy, the promotion of which is the touted aim of the US government in the first place.

An intro I wrote for the cover story of one of South Asia’s issues (dont remember month but year is 2008)

As military dictators go, Pakistan’s General Pervez Musharraf had always seemed rather a decent sort. An affable man who apparently spoke his soldierly mind, Musharraf prompted quiet cheers from many of his countrymen when he usurped power from a corrupt civilian government in 1999. Risking popular anger by swiftly enlisting his country in the war against al-Qaeda and the Taliban, Musharraf ingeniously won the backing of America and its allies – a feat many thought would be impossible in the backdrop of the September 11th events. So far, he has been seen to be working in the country’s best interest. Yet, of late, the “Go Musharraf Go” chant seems to echo from various corners of the country, getting louder every day. It has not only inspired political caricatures but is also a well circulated cellular ring tone! One wonders, between then and now, what went wrong?
From the time over 5 decades ago when Pakistan saw its first dictator, things have not changed much. Over the course of years, the key players have taken different forms and faces but have somehow unraveled the art of retaining the true essence of their being – corrupt, crafty and selfishly power hungry. Time and time again, the army has stepped in to “rid” the country of the vermin that pollutes the political arena but to no avail. No longer the potential solution, the General has become a big part of Pakistan’s problem.

World leaders come together at the annual forum in Davos to discuss the challenges for 2008 in the backdrop of last years unresolved liquidity crunch writes Sadia Dada

In contrast to last year’s “dialogue in the dark” when delegates at the World Economic Forum deliberated in complete oblivion to the fragility of the global financial system, the agenda for the 2008 gathering was tailored to reflect the reality of the global economic downturn. Business leaders and policymakers flocking to the Swiss mountain resort of Davos seemed to carry none of the surreal jubilation over the strength of the global economy and the prospects for companies and instead focused on the fears of political and economic uncertainty.

The global economy is indeed facing a serious downturn. The financial slide that began in the US in August with the dislocation of key credit markets and losses linked to sub-prime mortgages is continuing, with worrisome spin-off effects around the globe: soaring oil prices, higher commodity prices (particularly for food), a plunging US dollar and billions lost by banks. At the same time, investor and consumer confidence is in a downward spiral.

Session Chair John K. Defterios, Anchor, CNN Marketplace Middle East, CNN International, United Kingdom likened the market reaction to a perfect storm already brewing and called on participants to help “find the light at the end of the tunnel.” In the face of the thickening economic crises, emerging markets have all the more reason to pay attention to global risks highlighted by the Forum in its report.

The Global Risks 2008 report calls for new thinking on systemic financial risk in response to the revolution in financial markets over the last two decades. While recommending a set of principles for country risk management the report also expresses fears that the current liquidity crunch will spark a US recession in the next 12 months. On a different note, there are warnings of food security becoming an increasingly complex political and economic problem over the next few years, with issues of equity and trade-offs between security and other issues making the design of global policy both difficult and necessary.

Stressing the need for greater cooperation on managing vulnerabilities associated with cross-border supply chains and concentrations of production along with that of an improved approach to securing viable energy supplies in the years ahead, in the backdrop of the dollar price of oil at record highs, the report captures the key agenda of the Forum. The single most threatening concern identified by world leaders as they put together their heads to propose methods to address the economic issues, is lack of coordinated response and leadership.

Youssuf Boutros-Ghali, Minister of Finance of Egypt explained that coordination on a macroeconomic policy stance is the solution. “Because we do not have the coordination, the financial crisis might spill over into the real economy. Anxiety among developed countries about the effects of globalization could lead to a protectionist stance. Anxiety is the biggest medium-term threat,” added Ghali.

Amongst other key disconcerting factors, mismanagement of the current crisis and broad-based collapse of confidence remain high. The US economy seems about to slide into a recession and this, is undoubtedly a concern for the world in general and emerging markets in particular given the fact that this has the potential to be highly contagious. This also explains a similar concern, i.e., overreaction to the threat of recession as another factor that adds to the economic uncertainty in 2008. Contrary to the efforts of socially responsible advocacy groups vis-à-vis rising income inequalities as an economic threat, this seemed to be, as usual, lowest on the Davos list.

What was unusual this year was the inclusion of water and food security as issues affecting economic debate. This could be another sign of the shift in sentiment given last year’s outcome as this is first time Davos is staging a series of debates about food supplies – a topic that could generate lively debate given the recent sharp rise in many agricultural commodity prices, and the political challenges this is generating in emerging economies.

A panel including UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told international business CEOs and civil society leaders assembled in Davos that water stress poses a risk to economic growth, human rights, health, safety and national security. Resonating his words that water is just as critical as climate, Peter Brabeck-Letmathe, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Nestlé, Switzerland, said, “The solution to water is more complex than the solution to climate change.” Davos agreed.

The swathe of attendees was also a notable contrast with earlier years. This year’s panelists included officials from the China Investment Corporation and Dubai International Capital, for example, who had responded to the call of a planned debate on their investments. Moreover, sovereign wealth funds overshadowed one topic that was prominent at last year’s event: the role that private equity now plays in the global economy.

In Global Risks 2007, the Global Risk Network of the World Economic Forum warned of a growing under-appreciation of risk in financial markets, provided a snapshot assessment of a range of global risks for the decade ahead, and recommended the institution of country risk officers and flexible issue-based international coalitions to manage the complexity of the global risk environment.

However, this year it will be difficult to manage global risks as both political and economic uncertainties are likely to act as a focus for global discussion and energy. On the economic side, an exceptional period of global growth may come under pressure as the liquidity crisis of 2007 impacts the real economy. On the political side, changes of government in several major countries and an uncertain situation in the Middle East will dominate. Leadership on global risk issues will be an increasingly precious commodity.

Opportunities for a peaceful settlement in the Israel-Palestine conflict may be stronger in 2008 than at any time since the turn of the century. Major emerging economies have increasingly demonstrated their willingness to take a leadership role in managing global risks. New financial products may be increasing the potential of financial markets to diversify and absorb risk. Risk management has become a key element of the management and strategy of both business and government. Recognition of the need to reform the global energy economy has set the stage for a multi-decade shift in direction. But, for many of the global risks discussed in this report, the question of ownership of these risks remains unanswered.

The fragmentation of ownership of global risks and the complexity of interdependencies will make equitable and sustainable management of global risks hugely challenging. Should systemic financial risk lead to a serious deterioration in the world economy, the prospects for collaborative mitigation may be reversed on several fronts simultaneously as attention turns to more immediate concerns. The Global Risk Network will continue to bring together policy-makers, business leaders and nongovernmental organizations to help align assessments of risk, to understand institutional gaps and to better grasp the interconnectedness of sectors and risks.

Yet, the tone of the Forum was set well before the chairs were pulled out. Klaus Schwab, the founder of the Davos meetings, himself was notable downbeat as he reaffirmed that economic challenges would indeed dominate all proceeds – the aftermath of the subprime crisis, the transfer of capital from energy-consuming to energy-producing countries, inflationary tendencies were some of the primary concerns he pointed out.

David Nadler, vice chairman of Marsh & McLennan, the professional services company, echoed Schwab when he disclosed that with so many potential consequences of the 2007 liquidity crunch unresolved, the outlook at the beginning of 2008 is more uncertain than it was a year ago.

It is no surprise that the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2008 concluded with a call by business, government and civil society leaders for a new brand of collaborative and innovative leadership to address the challenges of globalization, particularly the pressing problems of conflict, terrorism, climate change and water conservation.

To some this may not seem conclusive or even comprehensive. For other it is ample food for thought. With the state of the financial world having seen a dramatic turnabout in the past year, the World Economic Forum is the first of many in 2008 to debate on global policy responses to the credit crunch – next month’s crucial meeting of the Group of Seven finance ministers and the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank are just around the corner. While it is in those forums that the decisions will be taken, it is at Davos where the main players can see if consensus will be possible in a less formal and more private environment.

By Sadia Dada
Wednesday, May 28, 2008

As the price of crude oil touches new record heights, so have the global food prices. These food prices have risen 73 percent since 2006, but the increase for certain products has been even more dramatic. Edible oils are up 144 percent; cereals, including wheat and rice, are up 129 percent; dairy products have doubled in price. These prices are expected to remain elevated at least until 2009.

According to World Bank president Robert Zoellick, the developing world’s higher food bill will erase the past seven years of progress in reducing poverty. The World Food Programme has labelled the spreading food crisis a “silent tsunami.”

Economists have since time immemorial been obsessed with fluctuations in oil prices. So have historians. The quest for resources is the factor that has carved history and given it the course it took, and crude oil is one of the most precious natural resources. To understand crude oil better, it is imperative to understand what it really constitutes. Crude oil is a naturally occurring substance found in certain rock formations in the earth. This “black gold” is a dark, sticky liquid which is the source of fuel oil, petrol, jet fuel, diesel, and even plastic. Some electricity plants in the world, for instance, are powered by fuel oil. So crude oil is key in almost every industry in the world today, from medical to engineering.

While developing economies, particularly those that are booming, have demonstrated an increasingly high demand for crude oil, production has not matched this insatiable demand. As a non-renewable resource, forecasts that one day the Earth will run out of fuel in 40 to 110 years is another crucial factor. The prospect of an eventual exhaustion, coupled with the relentless increase in demand, has added to the volatility of oil prices, especially in reaction to news of threats to the supply of oil. For instance, fears of a Turkish incursion into Iraq in their quest for Kurdish rebels that could cause a disruption in crude supplies have directly led to the recent surge of crude oil prices to record highs last week.

As the basis of the world’s first trillion-dollar industry and the largest item in the balance of payments and exchanges between nations, the importance of crude oil is supreme in the world today.

At the domestic level, rising oil prices erode profit margins for companies, as transportation and production costs automatically follow suit. As operating costs touch new heights, the difference must inevitably be passed onto the consumer. Hence, oil prices can be regarded as indicators of the profit margins of companies, especially those in transportation and shipping industries since a huge portion of their operating expenses is spent on oil and its energy-producing by-products. In the instance of the fast moving consumer goods as well as basic essential commodities, medicines and vaccines, dairy products and food items, which rely heavily on quick and timely transportation of material to the production facility and onward to the consumer, the pinch is felt at both the collection and distribution levels.

Political arenas are the most common of places where the world can openly witness the massive influence of crude oil — one of the main components of the struggle in global political economy. Changes in oil prices complicate the world economy and disrupt businesses when government leaders of oil-dependent countries, in response to price spikes, employ resistant policies such as import substitution, which augment and destabilise the global economy. To bring this vicious cycle to a full circle, an investor’s profitability is directly affected by the state of global economy and business cycles, which, in turn, is highly influenced by price spikes of oil.

Instead of hitting the panic button, governments are better off paying attention to the market forces and taking the investor into confidence. All trade by definition is a mutually beneficial exchange and while the means may be different, all players are working towards the same end goal – to serve the market. In this case, the newly elected premiere and the almost-a-decade-wise president are urged to take action before the crisis in Pakistan hits the ceiling. A reasonable approach would be to seek out a middle path while also focusing on other illegal activities whose benefits are not translated onto the economic map of Pakistan such as smuggling in the case of wheat and flour.

For Pakistan, the burden of an ill-planned move could be fatal. A vast majority of the population is desperately struggling to survive – the signs of frustration have been unmasked in the recent consecutive incidents of robbers being burnt alive.

The writer is a freelance contributor